Cash Flow
The 13-week forecast that survives slow months.
Long enough to see a season shift. Short enough that every line is something you can actually predict.
Why 13 weeks
Beyond 13 weeks is a guess.
One quarter is the sweet spot. You can see a season change coming, and you still have enough certainty in your inputs that the numbers mean something. Most owners discover the cash problem in week 1 of the crisis. The forecast moves the discovery to week 13 of the runway.
What you forecast weekly
Five inputs. Every week. Every line.
- 01
Confirmed receivables
Invoices already sent, mapped to the week they actually arrive, not when you wish they would.
- 02
Pipeline deposits
Signed jobs not yet started. The cash that comes in before the truck rolls.
- 03
Recurring obligations
Payroll, rent, loan payments, insurance, software. The bills that don’t care if you booked work.
- 04
Variable spend
Materials, fuel, subs. Scales with the jobs you’re actually running that week.
- 05
Tax and owner draws
Quarterly estimates, sales tax, payroll tax, and whatever you pay yourself. Always on the sheet.
The example
Tree service in mid-November. Week 8 shows negative $4,200.
Today you have 8 weeks of runway. Real options: chase aging AR, push a winter pruning offer, defer the chipper purchase, draw on the line of credit.
Without the forecast, you discover the same problem the morning payroll bounces. The only option then is panic.
The bottom line
Build it in Sheets. Update every Monday. Watch the week-13 cell.
If that cell goes red, you have 13 weeks to fix it. That’s the whole point.